Tuesday, 22 November 2011

Trade Closed EURCAD (+27bps / 1.1R)

This trade really put me through the wringer.

Hysteria over Italian bond yields sent the Euro down to the entry level...and then some, but I was relaxed as I felt the entry criteria had been met.

Initial stops were placed 30 pips through the H4 bat, which kept me in the trade. From memory price missed my stop by 10 pips, so at this stage things clearly weren't going to plan.

From here we found support and I was pleased to book profit at the first objective +61 pips. Second profit target was higher, but the presence of a bearish Gartley led me to book early at +46  pips (see below)



Early exit on the second position was a good decision, as it allowed more room on the final 1/3rd, and price did subsequently fall...for a week...thank you Mr Berlosconi.

From here the worst case was a breakeven trade, but I found this period particularly difficult. Price ground relentlessly lower, eventually stopping just 2 pips shy of my stop. I'm still struggling with the 1/3rd runner, it's really not my style. I don't like the risk of giving back profits, and I find it hard to concentrate on new opportunities while I still have an existing position. It worked on this occasion, but only just. A compromise might be to reduce the size of the runner (say to 1/6th)...not possible on this occasion due to the original size.

The final position was exited at the weekly 3sma and H1 bearish butterfly for +183 pips (below). Overall it was a troublesome trade, and although I take some credit for trade management, there was also an element of luck.

It goes to show what a fine line it is (2 pips) between success and failure, but as  Samuel Goldwyn said "The harder I work, the luckier I get"