Trade Closed USDJPY ( +32 bps / 0.32R )

A lucky gain from a failed set up.

Proud of the trade though. The H2 pattern hit late Wednesday, but I controlled fear of missing out, and waited for further confirmation of an M5 IQM/harmonic combination (below). Been working hard on this final step, trying to emulate my better trades like this GBPUSD http://modoforex.blogspot.com.au/2012/02/trade-closed-gbpusd-31-bps-14r.html

Eventually got long around 8pm Friday at 79.36, and was immediately at peace with the trade given the discipline of entry and validity of the set up. Waiting for the M5 pattern ensured I got the biggest possible position, and stops were placed 20 pips below X at 79.06.

Once long I immediately logged off and didn't watch the trade. With the outcome beyond my control I went out for a drink, and thank God for that! Turned out to be a horrible entry. Price blew through the H2 X, broke the previous week's low, and came to within 1 pip of my stop, but I was blissfully unaware. Not until the close did I checked the market, at which time I was in profit 10 pips or 0.35R. Noting that the reasons for being long had been violated, I closed the position for a small gain. Lucky to escape. This was a hair away from a 100 basis point loss.

But they say you make your own luck. Discipline on entry may have been rewarded in this case. Had I not waited for the optimal entry I may have carried a smaller stop, and certainly a smaller position. Had I watched the trade too closely I may have cut early for a small loss. So despite failure of the pattern, there was positive reinforcement of some good habits. You take what you can get.

Trade Closed NZDUSD (-100 bps)

Traded the plan and lost.

I didn't want to short, but entry criteria had been met so I took the trade. Concern stemmed from the series of  higher lows setting up a 1-2-3 breakout http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2009/06/1-2-3-breakout.html , and similarities to a previous AUDJPY loss http://modoforex.blogspot.com.au/2012/06/trade-closed-audjpy-113-bps.html .

Soon after entry we moved to +0.4R, but given concerns I trailed more aggressively, and stopped out for a small gain of +0.1R.

In hindsight, this was good management, but afterwards I felt it lacked discipline to not wait for 1R before moving to break even. I felt I was trading scared, trading what I thought rather than what I saw, and feared the trade would work but I hadn't taken the signal. I reasoned I'd rather take a loss following my plan, than miss an opportunity by not.

So the next day I entered short for a second time. Again it moved to +0.4R but just wouldn't break convincingly. Time was ticking by, and the symmetry of the original pattern was gone. Buy stops (including my own) had now accumulated above the top of the ascending triangle. Trading had been quiet, holiday-like, thanks to Hurricane Sandy, and you just knew that when volume returned we'd blow through the stops...which we did...fuck!

It's never easy to lose, but I'm not too upset with myself.I can see how I became confused and indecisive when experience and gut feel conflicted with the trading plan. I was unsure whether to exercise discretion, and thought I was doing the right thing at the time. One positive is that I got one step closer (by closing the initial position) to avoiding danger than on the similar AUDJPY position. Next time I'll trust my experience and play more defensively. Having both trades documented will be a good resource.

Trade closed GBPCAD ( -2 bps)

Lucky to escape unscathed.

Entry was uncomfortable. CAD was under pressure. EURCAD had broken out, and GBPCAD was rallying on London open. It was hard to fade, but I had an H1 bat with QM after a weekly 3SMA touch, so entered short at 1.5936, just 10 pips away from "X"...gulp.

Absent from the set up was a broken TL or smaller TF pattern, and the PRZ on the H1 bat was wide (1.5920-40), meaning I was never fully at ease with the trade.

From entry we traded up to "X" at 1.5948, and things weren't looking good. But surprisingly we weakened to 1.5920 (+0.3R), before a sharp rally into US open and took price to 1.5975, just 4 pips shy of my 1.5979 stop. It was nerve wracking, but somehow I stayed in the trade. After narrowly stopping out on a recent EURCAD (below), I decided to place stops on exotic pairs further through "X" (30 pips). Doing so saved me on this occasion.

Shortly after US open CAD began outperforming, driving my trade to break even, at which point I exited. The trade had been troublesome from the outset. Many of the original reasons for the trade had been violated, so I used the next best opportunity to escape.  It reminded me of this AUDCAD trad http://modoforex.blogspot.com.au/2011/10/trade-closed-audcad-short-10155.html

In the morning I woke to find price had continued in my favour, but I was comfortable with the  cutting the trade, and thankful it did not hit my stop. Price didn't reach 1.5R before returning to entry, so break even is the best I could have achieved.

Trade Closed USDCHF (+187 bps / 1.87R)

A good result from a better setup.

Entry still needs work. The original level 0.9417 was hit outside trading hours, so I waited for SPI to open at 10am Sydney. At this time I immediately hit 0.9407 bids, which was a bit desperate. A cooler head would have waited for further confirmation on the lower time frames and got a better fill (we traded up to 94.26 in the next hour). Stops were place 20 pips through X at 0.9458.

The worse entry meant smaller position and cut about 20 bps from performance, so while this was a good trade, it could have been better. On a positive note, I'm pleased I took the trade at all, as I was losing on the previous EURCAD at the time. Shorting USDCHF was essentially doubling my EUR exposure when the first positoin was failing, so I'm pleased I put my fears of double loss to one side and traded what I saw.

In contrast to the previous EURCAD, I felt comfortable with this trade throughout. I was selling short term strength in an obvious long term downtrend with a clear QM. Price had not retraced to 0.382 on the weekly, so it would have been a tough trade psychologically for many to take, and I was happy to attack the bottom pickers.

I suffered a 20 pip draw down before the trade started moving in my favour, then got a retracement through break even, but thankfully was not watching at the time. In fact, I haven't been watching my trades much lately as I've been busy with a new job. I have found the distraction helpful.

Exits were planned for 0.9297, just above an H4 bullish bat, but I covered early at 0.9325. I was tossing up the decision. Was I being weak not going for the last 30 pips, or was I being greedy? I kept coming back to "The odds overwhelmingly favour quitting early". I was at 1.87R, it had been a good trade, it was half an hour after London open...a time I would ordinarily look for reversals, so I covered. R/R goals had been met (1.5R), so it made sense to leave. Subsequent price action (below) seems to have validated the decision.

Trade Closed EURCAD ( - 100 bps )

A weak setup with poor execution. Urge to kill, rising.

Although entry requirements were met in terms of weekly 3SMA touch with IQM, there were weaknesses. Weaknesses that I knew at the time, but just couldn't face. The H1 IQM was weak thanks to a marginal lower low, there was no trend line support, and the H4 gartley's PRZ had been blown right through with a very bearish candle. It was the price action immediately after this candle that sucked me in, retracing sharply in a "V" like matter and creating an m5 IQM.

I thought the bottom was in, that the bearish candle was just stops getting filled and it was time to pay up. I bought 1.2625 without a small time frame pattern and outside prescribed entry times. I reasoned that I would have been set at these levels had I been watching over London, which is true, but it's bending the rules...a slippery slope.  I bought out of hours, it was wrong, and I'm upset about the lapse of discipline.

Honestly, I feel my discipline is at risk. I've taken it for granted as I haven't erred for so long, but with a change of jobs there have been a number of changes to my routine lately, so I must be diligent. I'll continue to work on discipline outside of trading to ensure I can be trusted in the market, and I'm confident I'll nip the danger in the bud now that I've addressed it.

The lapse on entry and general concerns over the setup created anxiety. I never felt comfortable with the trade, but wasn't good enough to recognise I'd made a mistake and cut the position. Generally, if I'm satisfied with a setup, I'm relaxed and and fatalistic the outcome. I need to recognise the difference between these two feelings, and use them to inform me if I am in a valid trade.

Although the trade basically went against me from the outset, there were a number of opportunities to exit at break even or for a small gain, but when these opportunities arose I thought everything was going to be just fine lol and my anxiety was just jumping at shadows. Dumb.

After an agonising 24 hours, I eventually stopped out at 1.2582. Taking a loss on a marginal trade really hurts.To be fair, I avoided a lot of bad trades in the weeks since my last trade, but I really lost concentration here. I need to build a better case, and stop kidding myself about an opportunities' weaknesses. It's amazing how readily one can indulge in denial, humans are very good at it.

Trade Closed USDCAD ( +137 bps / 1.37R )

Another win so that's good.

A common fault of recent trades has been a lack of patience at the final entry hurdle. Pleasingly, this was not the case with the last two trades.

A touch of the weekly 3SMA is simply a signal to get interested. I noticed a lot of my best trades came the week after a weekly 3SMA touch. Often there would be an H4 QM then a final M5 QM as the entry trigger. Waiting for all this confirmation reduces blowouts, but takes patience and a lack of FOMO (fear of missing out).

Entry on this trade could have been a touch better. There was an M1 bat at 98.50, but I entered at 98.46 on some bearish M1 bars. Slightly disappointing. Had I waited for 0.886XA, I would have shorted the day's high and had the perfect trade, so I guess I still did falter slightly, there is always room for improvement. Stops were placed 20 pips through the H1 bat's X at 98.79.

After entry I got a small draw down of 6 pips, before price pushed down to 98.12 by London Open. Fortunately I was not watching the subsequent retracement, and found price around 98.20 (0.7R) at the New York open. Price had not reached 1R, so I had not moved stops to break even.

Half an hour after New York open we got strong ISM data. Risk rallied and USDCAD broke the London low. 1R had been reached and stops were moved break even. It took discipline not to close immediately for a 1R gain. I reminded myself that patience and discipline are just as important when in a position, and asked myself "would you like to be a buyer at these levels?" The answer was "no", so I started to look for areas where I would consider buying as levels to cover my short.

I found a measured move with IQM at 97.96 and decided to use this as my profit target. Fortunately we got there and I covered on the lows at 97.98 for a +47 pip/1.37R return. Not huge, but I milked about as much as I could. I was conscious of achieving 1.5R, and although not quite getting there, it served as a good guide and encouraged me to hold the short. 1.5R could have been achieved had I entered better, but the exit was good, so overall a well managed trade.

Trade Closed CADJPY ( +264 bps / 2.64R )

Ok, this is wierd...a winner!

Entry was set at the H1 bat 80.43, we went 81.38 bid around 6pm London so I didn't quite get set. M5 price action was bearish, so I accepted a slightly worse fill and hit bids around 80.34 roughly 10 minutes before the close of my trading hours (7pm). The worse fill meant a slightly smaller position, but I felt ok chasing price.

We moved to +50 pips with zero draw down before a nerve wracking 30 pip retracement the following day. Thankfully, we continued lower and stops were moved to break even on a break of 79.84 (approx 1R). If I am going to be more aggressive in terms of scaling out, I must reduce risk by trailing my stop. As such, I will leave the whole position on until 1R, them move to break even.

Soon after I covered approximately half the position at +65 pips, securing a 0.8R gain. Now I could relax a little and look for the next targets around 79.30 where there was a bullish bat. Fortunately we did continue lower, and the final positions were covered around the 100 pip mark at 79.33 and 79.22. As the chart below shows, these were good exits on the lows before a 200 pip rally! Finally, some good decisions.  A high quality setup well managed.

Trade Closed GBPJPY (-100 bps)

My 5th 10% loss in a row! If I didn't suffer from self esteem I'd be a basket case right now.

The setup had merits when first identified, confluence of harmonic patterns at the weekly 3SMA and extended ATR. But when the level finally hit, conditions had changed, and failure to adapt cost me dearly.

The market was quiet in the days preceding execution awaiting ECB statements and US employment figures. Orders were placed and removed several times in accordance with time of day rules, and price came close to the 125.10 entry level on several occasions.

Eventually the market sprang to life on ECB and BOJ comments. 125.10 was reached outside trading hours, and good discipline was shown to hold entry until the S&P opened. By this time we were 125.50 bid and had just taken out a recent high. 

At this point that I should have realised something was wrong. Price had rallied 40 pips through the Gartley D, and yen pairs such as EURJPY had made upside breakouts. I failed to adapt. The ability to change ones mind regardless of emotional investment defines a trader. It's something I did well at the start of this journal, minimising damage by accepting when wrong, but lately not so well. It stems from fear. Fear of regret. Fear that I will take a loss then see price move in my favour. Fear that I will not take a trade and it will end up a winner. I must address these fears if I'm to pull out of this nose dive.

I also need to control my greed. Instead of the higher entry level signalling danger, I saw it as a better fill whose smaller stop requirement would allow a bigger position. At 125.47 I only needed a 30 pip stop, so could short 1.3 million and get back all those losses! What a dick!. The X point of the gartley had been broken, basically invalidating the setup, but I thought it was a fake out and entered anyway. Sure, there were measured moves in the vicinity, but they were flimsy at best. After waiting for days, I needed to wait another 30 minutes after the S&P open for signs of a reversal on the smaller time frames. Once again, I stumbled at the final hurdle.

The trade stopped out in less than an hour, and I deserved it.

Yeah, but did you get the milk?

 

 

 

Trade Closed AUDUSD (-100 bps)

Oh. "Going for Broke". I get it now.

Perfect entry, moved quickly to 3.5R/320bps/+120pips/$18,000 with zero draw down. My best trade to date, but did I take it? No. I went for broke, and that's exactly what I got. How embarrassing.

So this is what was going through my head when the trade was approximately 3R/+100 pips/+$15,000.

"OMG, I'm so happy to be long Aussie again having stopped out by two pips last week, it's like a second chance at life. I've been saying for years this pair is going to 1.23, it must be my destiny. I have a great profit, enough to recoup the previous two losses, but I've only held the position for a day, it's broken the previous high and downtrend line, it's behaving as expected, I'm long 1.5 million, fucked if I'm closing out now. If anything I should be adding. Life comes down to a few moments and for me this is one of them, it's time to back my judgement and go for the home run. How will I ever live with myself if I close out for 100 pips when my long held view is we trade 2000 higher."

I actually don't have a problem with this thinking. I know it reeks of greed and fear of missing out, but I honestly believe that holding the position was the harder course of action at the time. Of course I wanted to take profit, in fact I did take 1/3rd profit at +92 pips, but put it back on because I thought I was being a pussy. It took guts to be a pig, and I don't regret the decision. Had we continued higher I would have been the man, and obviously I'm now a zero, but I'm proud of myself for being prepared to fail.

What I do regret is that I did not act when the pair broke down. I should have closed some or all of the position when we broke 1.0490, but instead got all "deer in the headlights". I reverted to the weekly charts and assured myself all was ok, that I needed to give the weekly low a chance to hold, and this may have been the case, but only with a small portion of the original position. I started living in hope and denial. I knew what I was doing, not doing, and should be doing...but did not do it. That's just bad trading.

So another tough lesson, I need to sort out my exit strategy. My mentor and I have discussed it at length and I'm unsure of where I stand. He feels I have been scaling out too conservatively, not getting enough from my winners, and there is some truth to that. Looking over past trades, those that work generally move at least 1.5R, and I'm clearly leaving a lot on the table, which is why I stopped scaling out 3 trades ago.

But I would also argue that I must protect the downside and reduce risk as the trade starts working. The truth probably lies somewhere in between.  There is plenty of risk in the 10% position structure, so I don't need huge multiples if I can continue at 65% win, but I could also extract more than I have been. This current trade is a good example. I didn't scale out, and had I exited better, say on the break of 1.0490, would have taken over 2R, which still would have been my best trade to date.

Considering the lack of clear exit strategy and how married I was to my AUD view, it's easy to see why I acted the way I did. It was wrong to be making decisions on the fly, and I need to sort this out before continuing.

As for the account, well, it's grim. A 100k investment from three years ago is now 50k, the lowest since inception. I must now return 100% just to break even.

As ridiculous as it sounds, my trading has improved a lot over the period, particularly since starting this journal. It was only in light of these improvements that I was authorised to trade bigger. Consecutive losses since making this change have had a material impact on the account, but this was always the risk. Account volatility is high, it's not easy to deal with, but despite the situation I still believe I can succeed. One trade at a time, I will not give up.

Trade Closed EURAUD (-100 bps)

The hits just keep on coming.

I had my eye on this all week, but by the time it hit (Friday afternoon) I was already long AUDUSD, and taking this trade would double my long AUD exposure. I had never held two open positions, let alone correlated ones, so naturally I was concerned.

Unsure of what to do, I consulted my trading plan. The setup fit the entry requirements, so I put my fears to one side and got short. I was now basically 20% long AUD...a meaningful stake, my biggest to date.

There was a slight lack of discipline on entry, entering 10 minutes before London open...a minor breach that did not effect the entry price 118.35, but disapointing nonetheless.

Once the trade was on I closed my platform and started drinking...heavily. The outcome of these positions would have a huge impact on my account, but watching would not change the outcome, plus, I wanted to have a good night out,  so resolved not to check until after the market closed.

But I wasn't confident. At the time of entry my long AUDUSD was getting hammered. I basically spent the night preparing for bad news, and that's exactly what I got on Saturday morning. AUDUSD had been stopped out, while EURAUD was at the money. Despite expecting the worst I was still shattered. My mentor and I have a rule "no tears" but I tell you, they were close. I still have this lump in my throat and knot in my stomach.

On Monday EURAUD traded lower, down to 1.7775 (1R), just enough to give me hope before a powerful rally took out my stop 118.90. Can't say I was surprised. 

As with AUDUSD, the trade behaved well initially and moved to 1R. Had I scaled out as before, the damage from these two trades would have been far less, but that's the risk I took. Hero or zero, in this case...zero.

So that's it really. Horrific month with three losses totalling approximately 30%. It will be tough from here, but my immediate goal is two consecutive wins.

Trade Closed AUDUSD (-100 bps)

A loss, but no regrets.

It's long been my view that AUDUSD will trade to 1.2300 (monthly deep crab). I've been banging on about it for years now, driving everyone mad. Its a running joke around the office and even Mum thinks I'm crazy! My mentor says if I'm right, and don't make any money, he'll disown me.

So ffinally last week I got the chance to enter long in accordance with my plan. The pullback was only shallow after a big rally and US yields were soaring. It felt horrible to pay so high, but I was comforted by the fact that it's not supposed to feel easy. Strong trends shouldn't pull back far and are not easy to join. I was just happy to finally have some money where my mouth was, and have rarely been so comfortable on a trade.

Entry was 1.0469 on an H4 gartley. Stops were 20 pips through the swing low at 1.0412. Execution was good, I could have done a few pips better on the day, but not too bad. After a 10 pip draw down we traded higher, up to 1.0525 (+65pips /1.1R), but no profit was taken given the "no scaling out" rule. Now that I was set with 1.4 million AUD, I was not about to let it go for 65 pips! If right the trade would make my year, if wrong I would lose 10%.

Turns out...I was wrong.

Strong selling inexplicably entered the market around the Asian open on Friday, and did not let up all day. Risk was on, but AUD was under pressure. It was unusual, possibly trading off the stronger US yields (yen also under pressure ) and the crosses. But whatever the reason, what do I care. All that matters is that price fell all day, eventually taking out my stop at 1.0412 before making a low around 1.0410. It hurt to see a nice profit turn into a 10% loss, but I knew the risks. I am at peace with the trade. Having waited so patiently for the chance to get long, there is nothing I would change...except, ok, yeah...the result.

Next.

Trade Idea AUDUSD - Long 1.0465

Buying high on a shallow pullback with US yields rising. Suddenly I don't feel so well.

Trade Closed NZDUSD (-100bps)

It fit the plan so I took it...and lost. I guess I can live with that.

Looking back, the biggest problem was the high range bullish candles in the CD leg of an already questionable bat. Daily ATR from the session prior to execution was also greater than 1.2 ATR(52) which warned of further gains.

Original shorts were planned for 0.8025, but this level hit outside trading hours on Thursday. I was actually relieved to have the entry decision taken out of my hands. From here we got a 30 pip pullback, then traded up to 0.8035 on Frankfurt, taking out the previous session's highs. I thought this was possibly a fake-out, and seeing the price I wanted at the correct time of day, entered short at 0.8030.

I got 15 pips into the money then things turned sour.  Price ground higher for the remainder of the session, not a pleasant way to spend a Friday evening! I've seen it before on a Friday...trend days with little chance of reversal, especially with the previous week's highs and stops so close (0.8050). Perhaps I should have realised the trade wasn't working and exited early, but that's easy to say with hindsight.

Overall, an acceptable trade with poor result (stopped out 0.8084). I took the loss hard because I'd passed on a USDCAD short during the week that was perfect, but took this dog that wiped all gains from the previous AUDJPY.

After wallowing in self pity for a day, I'm slowly starting to feel better. Journalling my thoughts is once again aiding the recovery. It was an ok trade that just didn't work out...it's happens. As long as I follow the plan I can hold my head high.

Next.

Trade Closed AUDJPY ( +118 bps / 1.18R )

Good entry, but the exits could have been better.

The set-up was just like the previous AUDCAD so I played it the same way, conservative exits with a runner.

The entry level 82.09 hit outside trading hours, so I waited  until the SPI opened, by which time we were 82.02 bid.  Rather than offer 82.09 I hit the bid, then again at 82.00 and finally 81.96. Execution was slow as it was over the phone, and the worse fills reduced position size, but I was pleased to be chasing the market. I remember a market wizard saying he hated getting filled too easily, that ideally it should be hard to get set as the market moves in your desired direction.

There was barely any draw down on the position and T1 was taken around +30 pips. It was a weak exit. I had left a bid at 82.51 but didn't quite get hit, then panicked a bit and closed at 82.67...poor discipline. The same for T2, I had a limit at 82.02 but exited at 82.55. Admittedly, these limits were just guides. The weekend was looming and I wasn't confident about trend change. I'm happy with the decision to exit 2/3rds of the position, but I could have done slightly better on these exits. Lack of discipline cost me about 20-30 basis points. I really need to work on my exits.

The final position was closed Monday morning at 80.83 (+120 pips)  for a total gain on of 118 bps. We traded down to 80.20 , but you'll never get every pip, and I was happy with the result.

Trade Closed AUDCAD ( - 3 bps )

God bless this trading journal. Without it I would surely have taken 100 bps loss on the trade. Lessons from the GBPAUD helped enourmously with trade management, and I'm delighted my diary is serving it's purpose.

I knew there were issues with the trend, but there were enough positives to justify entry with an m5 crab (below). Price moved immediately moved in my favour, but thanks to the GBPAUD example, I saw this as a pullback, and adjusted profit targets accordingly. T1 was reduced to 20 pips, at which point 2/3rds of the position was covered, more than my usual 1/3rd, and the trade was now risk-free.

The final 1/3rd was allowed to run with the original stop. I wanted to close the whole position at T1 and secure a +60 bps gain , but the trade was moving to plan, and I owed it the chance to continue.

I was conscious of not letting previous losses affect my judgement. Yes, I wanted to book profit, but I must be consistent and treat each trade independently. I wasn't at 1R, and trading scared can be dangerous. My mentor says, "Most people go broke because they cannot let their winners run." but others say to  "book early and often." Finding that balance is hard, so in the end, given concerns over the set-up, I think conservative exits with a small runner was a reasonable compromise.

The final position stopped out at 1.0497 (-49 pips), but I'm happy with overall management. Risk was eliminated while upside left open. I have no regrets and am pleased walk away unscathed.

Trade Idea AUDCAD - Short 1.0455

Not sure if I will take this. Reminds me of a loss I took shorting GBPAUD a while back http://modoforex.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/trade-closed-gbpaud-100-bps.html .

Main concern would be the positive weekly 3SMA low, room to weekly ATR 52, and weak QM (due to marginal higher high).

Trade Closed GBPJPY ( - 65 bps )

Not the full 100 basis point loss, but it still broke my heart.

The speed and magnitude of the reversal is what made this loss so difficult. Having nursed the trade for days things were just starting to improve, with T1 met (+50 pips) and the pair spiking higher after BOJ easing. But hope quickly turned to despair as the easing measures were deemed insufficient, and the move got faded. I stopped out two hours later. It's taken days for my head to catch up with the market.

I feel better about it now, in fact I'm proud of the trade. The premise was good, namely, attempting entry into the daily bat (below) at the Weekly 3SMA low with a QM /bat combination. It fit my plan and was executed with control. Risk was deemed appropriate given the large potential return.  It didn't work this time, but that's trading. I must try not to take individual losses so personally.

Trade Closed GBPJPY ( +169 bps / 1.69R )

Finally, a winning trade!

Sketchy H4 bat (blue) due to the short BC leg. Extended weekly and daily ATR readings were from previous sessions, and the weekly 3SMA was positive. All reasons for concern.

But there were also many positives as outlined on the chart. M30 and M5 patterns fine tuned the entry and the trade moved immediately into the money.

Trade management was the usual battle between greed and fear. Had to control my greed in order to book 1/3rd at T1 +50 pips. We continued lower, but i'm happy with the decision to reduce overall risk.

From here, ECB, BOE and PBOC rate decisions sent the market crazy, but I escaped unscathed and eventually booked most of the position at T2 around +140 pips.

A small residual (1/8th) position was allowed to run over NFP  with a target of 120.00, but I covered on positive momentum post news at +180 pips due to the weekly bullish bat, H4 bat IQM (white) and weekly 3SMA low.

One of my best trades in terms of risk/reward. Happy with the execution and management.

Trade Closed AUDJPY ( -113 bps )

Fuck, another loss...that's four in a row! I'm going down like an Italian fighter pilot.

This one almost wiped out my account, but before you ask, "No, I did not have a brain explosion."

The increase in position size was authorised by my mentor and investor prior to execution. From now, position size will be 10% of total available funds (70k), rather than 10% of funds in the trading account (10k). So the 8k loss on this trade represents an 11.3% loss on total nominal capital ( or -113 bps on notional).

Unfortunately, the change in money management has compromised performance statistics. Percentage returns are now meaningless, but other metrics such as win/loss etc remain valid, so I'll continue to publish statements.

Psychologically, it's hard to see my stats and equity curve destroyed. Once a source of pride, they now evoke failure, despite the fact that my account would still be positive (+5%) had I maintained constant position size of 2.5%.

Frankly, I've lost momentum and am at risk of acting impulsively. I'm struggling to maintain discipline, not just with trading, but with all aspects of life. It's hard to stay strong in the absence of positive feedback, but I guess that's where real character is earned. Writing out my fears and frustrations should help. I always feel better after journalling a losing trade, it's cathartic. I'll also try to focus on the positives from the year, a period of unparallelled control for my trading.

As for the trade, well, it was valid, and I'd take it again. Entry at 79.40 was good. I waited patiently for a small time frame trend line break and IQM after the H1 gartley. Entered with an m5 bat and moved 50 pips into the money with zero drawdown, at which point 1/3rd was covered. It was at this point that I got the green light to go with additional size, so added to the short at average levels around 79.05. There were additional reasons to short, but the trade was stale, having already hit T1. Regardless of the entry level, I would have taken a loss on the trade. Not to my surprise we gapped open higher on Monday after positive Greek election results, and slippage on the re-open resulted in the total loss exceeding the -100 basis point limit (-113 bps).

Not the most illustrious of starts to my new position sizing, but I feel better after a grizzle...waaaa. Time now to look forward, work hard, and be positive. I can do this.