Scaled in mid 30's and we moved to +20 bps (+50 pips) with minimal drawdown. Took first profit at +40 pips, but that's where the party ended. Strong equity rally (S&P 40 pts / 3%!) saw USD weaken considerably (AUDUSD + 2 cents), more than enough to send NZDJPY through the stops at 59.60 and up to 60.00. I had several opportunities to exit early with a small gain, but decided to let the trade play out, aware that the level would probably fail. Total loss was 9 bps (not the full 25 bps) as partial profit was taken.
In hindsight the trade should have had a stronger basis in the weekly 3SMA. After weeks of inaction, I think my patience finally faltered, albeit marginally, but enough to result in a loss. The setup was good, but it in the wrong position. Had I seen it 100 pips higher (at the weekly 3SMA and ATR) it would have been perfect.
Reaction from the entry level showed the trade had merits, but the lack of follow through was a result of the pattern's position in relation to the weekly 3SMA. I'm not upset with myself over the trade, I'd score it 8/10, but having reviewed it believe I could do better next time.
Frequency is becoming an issue. Since the start of November I've only had 4 trades, with a 50% win rate for small gain. I have considered relaxing the entry rule regarding the weekly 3SMA requirement. This last trade is a good example of how it might be applied. Entry was in the direction of the weekly 3SMA, but the fact that it had not hit the upper band or weekly ATR should have informed my profit objective, leading me to be less agressive and cover more or full position at T1.
For now I won't make changes. Naturally I'm a bit flat after consecutive losses, but on the whole am happy with my trading and discipline, and will not allow natural losses divert me from the plan.
