Thursday, 8 March 2012

Trade Closed NZDJPY (+73 bps / 0.73R)

Phew, the first of my 10% positions worked out nicely.



0.73R is a bit skinny, but I scaled out conservatively due to concerns over the setup and the daily bearish bat (below). I only ever saw this as a bounce trade, so tried to hold the correction as long as possible without overstaying. I think time will show I left early, but Mum says you should always leave the table wanting more.



As for entry, the H4 butterfly was not at an IQM level, so I couldn't trade D outright, and instead had to wait for an IQM on the lower time frames. Ideally, the larger structure would be a Quasimodo, so this was a source of anxiety.

We eventually got the m5 IQM, followed by an m1 bat and TL break/retest just after US open (below). 



As the above chart shows, my entry was way off and price continued 50 pips lower as the Dax got murdered on Greek PSI concerns. Stops were placed 20 pips past the next XA fib of the H4 butterfly at 64.80.

Price action after entry had me worried. There seemed little in the way of support until 64.70. I went to bed satisfied with the trade, but expecting to wake up to a loss. In fact things improved slightly overnight, and more so the next day, eventually moving slightly into the money. At this point I was tempted to exit, but the weekly 3SMA and ATR convinced me to hold. However, given the poor start to the trade, I eventually closed conservatively with T1 at +35 pips, then T2 +60 and T3 around +95 pips.

Overall, not the best RR, and a slight lack of discipline on exit, but happy to escape with profit after an inauspicious start.