Prior to the trade I declined a number of appealing opportunities that didn't fit the plan, essentially on the basis that they were counter trend. Of course, many of these turned out profitable. It's such negative re-enforcement that makes trading so difficult. Being punished for doing the "right thing", makes maintaining discipline difficult. This is where the concept of "process over outcome" becomes important. Sticking to the plan is the only real measure of success in the short to medium term, and although I took a loss, I'm happy I did not waver in the face of temptation.
The trade was certainly not rushed. Bids were worked for a couple of days before eventually getting long at 1.2817 on Friday's North American session. By this time the long term trend line had broken marginally, but this was not of major concern as these things can fake-out. Friday saw temporary support at entry, and a small bounce took me into the weekend with a small profit, but subsequent developments in Greece saw risk appetite return, and the pair slice through support to my stop 1.2750.
In hindsight, there were a couple of issues with the trade. Support around 1.28 had been used 4 times, it had to be getting weak, and there must have been a shit tonne of stops underneath...including mine! The IQM was weak, and had also arguably been used. Finally, there was still 100 pips to the weekly ATR 52.
But it's easy with the benefit of hindsight. Even the best trades generally have one or two nagging negatives, and this was no different. I executed to the best of my ability with the information I had at the time. I'm pleased I tried to trade with the weekly trend, and resisted the urge to pick bottoms on pairs like NZDUSD (although it would have been profitable - see below). Hopefully over time this consistency will be recognised in performance.
