It's long been my view that AUDUSD will trade to 1.2300 (monthly deep crab). I've been banging on about it for years now, driving everyone mad. Its a running joke around the office and even Mum thinks I'm crazy! My mentor says if I'm right, and don't make any money, he'll disown me.
So ffinally last week I got the chance to enter long in accordance with my plan. The pullback was only shallow after a big rally and US yields were soaring. It felt horrible to pay so high, but I was comforted by the fact that it's not supposed to feel easy. Strong trends shouldn't pull back far and are not easy to join. I was just happy to finally have some money where my mouth was, and have rarely been so comfortable on a trade.
Entry was 1.0469 on an H4 gartley. Stops were 20 pips through the swing low at 1.0412. Execution was good, I could have done a few pips better on the day, but not too bad. After a 10 pip draw down we traded higher, up to 1.0525 (+65pips /1.1R), but no profit was taken given the "no scaling out" rule. Now that I was set with 1.4 million AUD, I was not about to let it go for 65 pips! If right the trade would make my year, if wrong I would lose 10%.
Turns out...I was wrong.
Strong selling inexplicably entered the market around the Asian open on Friday, and did not let up all day. Risk was on, but AUD was under pressure. It was unusual, possibly trading off the stronger US yields (yen also under pressure ) and the crosses. But whatever the reason, what do I care. All that matters is that price fell all day, eventually taking out my stop at 1.0412 before making a low around 1.0410. It hurt to see a nice profit turn into a 10% loss, but I knew the risks. I am at peace with the trade. Having waited so patiently for the chance to get long, there is nothing I would change...except, ok, yeah...the result.
Next.
