The setup had merits when first identified, confluence of harmonic patterns at the weekly 3SMA and extended ATR. But when the level finally hit, conditions had changed, and failure to adapt cost me dearly.
The market was quiet in the days preceding execution awaiting ECB statements and US employment figures. Orders were placed and removed several times in accordance with time of day rules, and price came close to the 125.10 entry level on several occasions.
Eventually the market sprang to life on ECB and BOJ comments. 125.10 was reached outside trading hours, and good discipline was shown to hold entry until the S&P opened. By this time we were 125.50 bid and had just taken out a recent high.
At this point that I should have realised something was wrong. Price had rallied 40 pips through the Gartley D, and yen pairs such as EURJPY had made upside breakouts. I failed to adapt. The ability to change ones mind regardless of emotional investment defines a trader. It's something I did well at the start of this journal, minimising damage by accepting when wrong, but lately not so well. It stems from fear. Fear of regret. Fear that I will take a loss then see price move in my favour. Fear that I will not take a trade and it will end up a winner. I must address these fears if I'm to pull out of this nose dive.
I also need to control my greed. Instead of the higher entry level signalling danger, I saw it as a better fill whose smaller stop requirement would allow a bigger position. At 125.47 I only needed a 30 pip stop, so could short 1.3 million and get back all those losses! What a dick!. The X point of the gartley had been broken, basically invalidating the setup, but I thought it was a fake out and entered anyway. Sure, there were measured moves in the vicinity, but they were flimsy at best. After waiting for days, I needed to wait another 30 minutes after the S&P open for signs of a reversal on the smaller time frames. Once again, I stumbled at the final hurdle.
The trade stopped out in less than an hour, and I deserved it.
